(Fox Searchlight Pictures)
By Moira Macdonald
The Seattle Times
Tuesday morning, at the ungodly hour of 5:30 PT, last year’s supporting-actress winner Mo’Nique will join Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences president Tom Sherak to announce this year’s Academy Award nominees.
What titles might we be likely to hear them read? What movies do we need to rush out and catch at the multiplexes in anticipation? Will James Franco need to grapple with the weight of being both Oscar host (co-host, that is, with Anne Hathaway) and Oscar nominee? Read on …
Best picture
Love it or hate it, the new Slate of Ten in this category (formerly five, until last year’s rule change) appears to be here for a while. I suppose it does no harm, as it gives a few more movies some attention, but it seems silly, as it was obvious last year which ones were the top five and which ones were excess baggage. And I think it’ll be pretty clear this year too. Here goes:
Sure things:
“Inception,” “The Social Network,” “The King’s Speech,” “Black Swan,” “The Fighter.” All of these will be on the best picture list; it’ll be a major hullabaloo if they’re not.
Not quite so sure:
The second five will almost certainly include some combination of “True Grit,” “The Kids Are All Right,” “127 Hours,” “Toy Story 3,” “Rabbit Hole,” “The Town,” “The Ghost Writer,” “Get Low” and/or “Winter’s Bone.”
Probably not:
Though Clint Eastwood is beloved by the Academy, his “Hereafter” doesn’t look likely to find any Oscar love; nor will Mark Romanek’s beautiful but little-seen “Never Let Me Go.”
Best director
Sure things:
This category reliably matches four out of five (and often all five) of the Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominees, and I think it’ll be this four: Christopher Nolan (“Inception”), David Fincher (“The Social Network”), Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”), Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan”).
Not quite so sure:
Who’ll take that fifth spot? Probably either DGA nominee David O. Russell (“The Fighter”) or previous Oscar winners Joel and Ethan Coen (“True Grit”). And don’t rule out Danny Boyle (“127 Hours”), who won this category two years ago for “Slumdog Millionaire” and could surprise.
Probably not:
Kathryn Bigelow last year became the first woman director to win an Oscar (for “The Hurt Locker”), but few expect Debra Granik (“Winter’s Bone”), Sofia Coppola (“Somewhere”), Lisa Cholodenko (“The Kids Are All Right”) or Nicole Holofcener (“Please Give”) to follow in her footsteps — at least not this year.
Best actor
Sure things:
Colin Firth, who many thought should have won last year for “A Single Man,” will lead the list for his moving performance as King George VI in “The King’s Speech.” Also sure to be on hand: Jesse Eisenberg for “The Social Network,” and last year’s winner, Jeff Bridges, for “True Grit.”
Not quite so sure:
Though “127 Hours” hasn’t been getting a lot of awards-season attention, it seems unthinkable that Franco would be ignored for his bravura (and mostly solo) performance. (We now pause for a moment of Oscar trivia: Would he then become the first host to be also nominated for an award? Nope; it’s happened six times before, and twice the host has won _ David Niven in 1958 and Frank Capra in 1938. End of pause.) Six-time nominee Robert Duvall could turn up for “Get Low”; Mark Wahlberg could score his first nod in the lead category for “The Fighter”; and previous supporting-actor winner Javier Bardem could slip in for “Biutiful.”
Probably not:
“Inception” got so much attention for its twisty plot and its visual elegance that not many noticed how beautifully acted it was _ so Leonardo DiCaprio (also very good this year in “Shutter Island”) will likely sit this year’s ceremony out.
Best actress
Sure things:
Oscar loves a physical transformation _ so Natalie Portman, who lost significant weight and learned significant ballet technique for “Black Swan,” is a front-runner. Annette Bening appears to have the edge over her fellow “The Kids Are All Right” mom Julianne Moore (who could, nonetheless, surprise, though maybe in another category). Jennifer Lawrence had the year’s most impressive breakthrough in “Winter’s Bone” and should turn up here.
Not quite so sure:
Anyone who’s seen “Another Year” knows that the wonderful Lesley Manville deserves an award, if not a dozen, but things have been muddled as to whether it’s a lead or supporting role, and she might disappear in the shuffle. Nicole Kidman does her best work in years in “Rabbit Hole,” but there doesn’t seem to be widespread support for the film. Young Hailee Steinfeld might have a shot for “True Grit” (though, like Manville, some might slot her in supporting), as might Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine,” and don’t rule out two-time winner Hilary Swank, whose work in “Conviction” got a surprise SAG nomination.
Probably not:
Oscar voters, alas, probably missed Catherine Keener’s wonderfully funny, honest performance in “Please Give.” And Naomi Watts did fine work as outed CIA agent Valerie Plame Wilson in “Fair Game,” but the movie seems to have disappeared without a trace; ditto for Carey Mulligan and “Never Let Me Go.”
Best supporting actor
Sure things:
Geoffrey Rush, as Colin Firth’s wise and witty speech therapist in “The King’s Speech,” is a shoo-in here; as is Christian Bale for his electric performance in “The Fighter.” And I’ll be astonished if Mark Ruffalo doesn’t score his first nomination, for his wonderfully breezy work in “The Kids Are All Right.”
Not quite so sure:
Jeremy Renner, nominated last year in the lead category for “The Hurt Locker,” could get a nod for “The Town.” Andrew Garfield, wonderful in both “The Social Network” and “Never Let Me Go,” should turn up in this category for the former. (Do watch him in the latter, though.) If enough Oscar voters watch their screeners, John Hawkes could score his first nomination for “Winter’s Bone.” And a sentimental vote could bring Michael Douglas, recently recovered from cancer treatment, back into the Oscar fold for “Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps.”
Probably not:
I’d love to see Johnny Depp’s melancholy Mad Hatter from Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland” show up here; alas, he surely won’t. And is the Academy ever going to recognize Alan Rickman in the “Harry Potter” movies? Time is running out.
Best supporting actress
Sure things:
Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”), Amy Adams (“The Fighter”) and Helena Bonham Carter (“The King’s Speech”) can probably start looking for dresses right now.
Not quite so sure:
This is a crowded category, with many having a shot: the are-they-lead-or-are-they-supporting crowd (Manville, Steinfeld, Moore); the critics’ darlings (Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom,” Dianne Wiest in “Rabbit Hole”); and the “Black Swan” ladies (Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey). Oh, and Sissy Spacek in “Get Low.” And Elle Fanning in “Somewhere.” And … well, that’s way more than five, isn’t it?
Probably not:
“Robin Hood” was a flop, but Cate Blanchett’s mature, wise Marian was a thing of beauty. (You know it’s a crowded year when there’s no room for the great Blanchett.)
Elsewhere
Expect Aaron Sorkin (“The Social Network”) and Christopher Nolan (“Inception”) to become immediate front-runners in the screenwriting categories adapted and original, respectively; “Toy Story 3″ to be a lock for best animated feature; and a quintet of movies to compete for best foreign-language film. And let the campaigning begin. Oscar night is Feb. 27; see you then.
___
83rd Academy Awards Nominations will be announced at 8:30 a.m. EST Tuesday. The Oscars will be awarded Sunday, Feb. 27, televised on ABC with red-carpet coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. and the ceremony beginning at 8 p.m. EST.
(c) 2011, The Seattle Times.
